Thesis
- With the 2009 minimum, a Supercycle (seventy-year) has concluded, and a new Supercycle has begun;
- With the Covid19 market minimum, wave II of the Supercycle has closed, completing an entire Cycle (decennial) with 5 impulsive waves and 3 corrective waves;
- From the Covid19 minimum, wave III of the Supercycle has started, and wave I of a new Cycle and Primary.
Development
- We are in the concluding phase of corrective wave II of the Cycle, which began with impulsive wave I at the Covid19 minimum;
- In turn, wave II of the Cycle is within wave III of the Supercycle;
- Wave II of the Cycle consists of corrective waves a, b, c of the Primary;
- The Primary has concluded with 5 impulsive waves and 3 corrective waves, also starting at the Covid19 minimum;
- If the entire Primary cycle follows the same length as waves I and II of the previous Cycle (Mar 2009 – Oct 2011), approximately 2 years and 7 months, with the necessary tolerances, we should have reached the minimum with wave C in October/November 2022.
Conclusion
- We are still in an intermediate bear market;
- Based on the data available to date, monitor the potential break of the 4,175 points level, with confirmation upon surpassing the 4,327 points, for the reversal from the bear market and the initiation of wave I of a new bullish Primary, corresponding to wave III of the Cycle;
- Scenario update only in case of a loss of 3,500 points (futures).
Please note that the information provided is not financial advice. It’s important to conduct thorough research and consider consulting with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
