Thesis
The market movement is not accidental. Each price is the result of the emotions, strategies and actions of millions of investors and the S&P500 Future, as a basket of stocks with the largest capitalization on the US market, represents the filter through which it is possible to observe the results.
Develompment
Since last January, the S&P500 Future is solidly bearish, in a well defined channel (black lines), with a bullish momentum divergence in the weekly. The proposed chart (candlestick type on Time Frame Weekly and logarithmic scale) shows how prices are on the upper side of this channel, just waiting for the US data on inflation and the consequent FED monetary policy decision on 12th and 13th December (vertical blue line).
Conclusions
We are unlikely to have a definite directional move prior to such a fundamental market mover. Next week, following the data, we could in fact see the end of the bearish movement with a break out of the black channel or return to the lows, for a new test from the bottom. In both cases we would have a sensitive movement and to date, the only winning trade is theoretically to stay out of the market waiting for the event which, in one way or another, will mark the lines for the coming month.
Please note that the information provided is not financial advice. It’s important to conduct thorough research and consider consulting with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
