Thesis
If an index aims to track the evolution of a basket of securities, and if the USA is the current dominant political, economic, and cultural “empire” (especially since the World Wars and beyond), drawing on some well-articulated concepts from Ray Dalio in his “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail,” it seems intriguing to make a comparison between the major American basket, the US500, and the evolution of human technological advancement.
Developement
It should be noted that the analyzed data should be adjusted for inflation, considering the depreciation of the dollar, the world’s reserve currency, by over 90% in 150 years, especially after the abandonment of the gold standard first, and later the gold exchange standard.
That being said, for speculative purposes and in broad strokes, it is interesting to observe how technological development, by definition exponential (as seen in Figures 1, 2, and 3), can be traced in the growth of the major American basket from the Civil War to today. This will be visualized both on an arithmetic basis (Figure 4) and on a logarithmic basis (Figure 5).
Conclusion
We do not know whether the USA will remain a global empire for a long time or if they will soon be supplanted politically, economically, and culturally by another emerging empire, such as China, for example. However, it remains interesting to observe whether and how this hypothesized Wave 3 of the SuperCycle (as seen in the study with Elliott on the US500 https://www.nishikigoinvestment.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=76&action=edit) will develop, potentially bringing us to the threshold of widespread robotics and singularity.
Please note that the information provided is not financial advice. It’s important to conduct thorough research and consider consulting with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
